Contribution across the simulations
5,000 possible outcomesSelect a bar to inspect that range.
Founder briefing / 11 September 2026
What to focus on next.
Grow D2C while strengthening the reseller business that represents 85% of sales today. Review a collaboration and two optical opportunities together. Keep hero frames protected from broad discounting.
Hero frames stay at full pricePlanning brief, pages 1–3: approximately 11,000 pairs targeted for sell-through by March 2027; D2C growth; 12 optical representatives. PT’s follow-up reports 85% reseller/wholesale and 15% D2C. Channel ranking is illustrative. Business figures require confirmation.
AI recommendations
Demo logic / current example inputsPairs to sell
~11,000 pairs
Planning brief estimateTarget date
March 2027
Across four routes to salesOptical representatives
12 commercial partners
Existing sales relationshipsTwo moves to review
Suggested next steps01
Visited By collaborationPush inventory · royalty, rights and distribution terms
02
Optical representative termsCompare payment, order size and return exposure
Sitewide 30% discount rejected · Protect inventory would lose full-price positioning.
CMO finds the next move. Sales Agent Tango handles negotiations. Validation checks the terms. You approve. Launch and Measurement follow the sale through.
A 15-minute walkthrough
2 min
Start with the business pressure.11,000 pairs by March. D2C, creators and 12 commercial partners. Protect the brand while moving the stock.
4 min
Choose the best next move.Compare all four routes. Change the priority, inspect Protect / Push / Clear and refuse the sitewide discount.
6 min
Negotiate the whole deal.Trade royalty, rights, promotion and allocation. Change a limit, inspect the ledger, then compare the optical representatives.
3 min
Follow the sale and test the economics.Approve the launch, reserve stock and record a sample order. Finish on the 70% target, human minutes and holdout results.
The business context behind this demo
The brief describes approximately £1.6m expected 2026 revenue, with an ambition to roughly double yearly. PT’s latest update puts the current sales mix at roughly 85% reseller/wholesale and 15% D2C. D2C is the growth priority; resellers remain the core business. The brief’s earlier £11,000 monthly D2C figure and £80,000 ambition need their reporting periods reconciled with that update; the new share does not establish a new monthly run rate.
PT reports 20% commission for optical representatives and 12–15% for influencers, payable only on the sales they generate. The creator example uses 12%, the low end of that range, with non-exclusivity as a demo term. The optical network includes 12 commercial partners across Korea, Japan, France, Italy, Spain, the Nordics, Germany, the US and Canada. The first goal is to sell the roughly 11,000 pairs intended for 2026 by around March 2027.
The brief cites potential manufacturing capacity of roughly 200,000 pairs a month if demand becomes repeatable. That is capacity to confirm, not a sales forecast. Report August's claimed doubling alongside its starting sales value: doubling from a small base does not by itself prove repeatable demand.
Source: Scenario E planning brief, 11 September 2026, figures relayed from Bilal through Aqil. The demo's frame-level stock, prices, costs, deals and test results are separate illustrative inputs.
What would justify growing the programme?
First show that the chosen offers create extra contribution after returns, partner payments and human work. Repeat the result across more than one campaign or deal group, while protecting full-price sales. Then confirm capacity, lead times and unit costs before committing more stock or spending.
Before the pilot starts, confirm opening stock and its age, real product costs, creator terms, optical sell-through, licences, refunds and payment dates. Agree the comparison groups and measurement window before results are known.
CMO input / Stock and sales
Sample stock and sales
The right next move for every frame.
The sell-through goal
11,000 pairs
Stock from 2026 · sell by around March 2027
Keep popular frames at full price. Help slower sellers reach more buyers. Use limited offers for older stock and check the profit before moving ahead.
| Frame | Policy | Pairs in stock | Sold / week | Weeks of stock | Margin¹ | Suggested next step |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protect | 2,100 | 90 | 23.3 | 69.0% | Full-price website | |
| Protect | 1,500 | 65 | 23.1 | 69.0% | Full-price website / email | |
| Push | 2,800 | 75 | 37.3 | 66.7% | Visited By collaboration | |
| Push | 2,100 | 56 | 37.5 | 66.7% | Optical representatives | |
| Clear | 1,400 | 25 | 56.0 | 58.8% | Creator / private offer | |
| Clear | 1,100 | 20 | 55.0 | 58.8% | Website / private bundle |
Selected frame / Sample plan
Rumi
Push · find more buyersAt this sample sales pace, Rumi would take 37.3 weeks to sell through. A Visited By collaboration gives buyers a new reason to choose the frame while keeping its price intact.
Suggested next step
Visited By collaboration
- Pairs in stock
- 2,800
- Selling each week
- 75 pairs
- Weeks of stock
- 37.3 weeks
- Selling price after refunds
- £240.00
- Cost per pair
- £80.00
- Left before selling costs¹
- £160.00 · 66.7%
Rules for this sample plan
Use a collaboration or optical representative. No sitewide discount. Check royalties, campaign costs and final approvals before launching.
How these numbers work
¹ Margin before selling costs: (modelled net selling price − variable cost per pair) ÷ modelled net selling price. Net price excludes tax and allows for discounts and refunds; variable cost covers landed product, fulfilment, payment costs and return handling. Channel commissions, royalties, campaign spending and fixed overhead are excluded here and must be deducted in the deal model.
Weeks of stock: pairs in stock ÷ pairs sold each week, shown to one decimal place. Weekly sales are a made-up four-week average. The calculation assumes the same pace continues and no more stock arrives.
What comes from the brief: Scenario E brief, 11 September 2026, describes approximately 11,000 pairs of 2026 inventory intended to sell through around March 2027. The six-frame allocation, policy assignments and all commercial values above are synthetic demo inputs. The brief’s estimates require confirmation before external use.
CMO / Finds and ranks the next sales opportunities
AI recommendationsWhat should we do next?
The CMO compares the stock, money left after costs, brand risk, work involved and time to payment. Open any recommendation to see why it is here.
AI recommendations
Demo logic / current example inputsStart with the collaboration; keep the representative and creator options moving alongside it.
Blocked / Whole-site discount
30% off the whole site would discount the frames you want to protect. Use a limited offer on older stock instead.
How the order is decided
Demo weights: margin 25%, stock pressure 10%, brand fit 50%, negotiation effort 5%, cash timing 10%.
Scores explain the sample ranking; they are not measured predictions. Brand fit and effort are example assessments to confirm with the team. Plans must be checked against available stock before launch.
Visited By / Bespoke collaboration
Why this comes first
A collaboration can sell selected frames through a story people want to be part of. It also gives you several terms to trade: royalty, rights, promotion and stock allocation.
Pairs in this plan600
Money left after costs£49,200
Margin after listed costs41.0%
What you reviewRights, royalty and campaign commitments
The launch depends on approved creative work and agreed rights. Keep optical and creator plans moving in parallel.
What would change this recommendation?
A later launch, a lower margin or rights that exceed your limits. Recheck the offer when any of these changes.
Show the calculation
Net sales£120,000
Product and fulfilment−£48,000
Royalty / 9%−£10,800
Campaign−£12,000
Synthetic plan. Net sales exclude taxes. This contribution calculation includes only the costs shown; it is not company profit.
Illustrative counterproposals at 20% commission
Representative A
800 pairs · £140 per pair
30-day payment · £4,000 return allowance
Representative B
600 pairs · £146 per pair
60-day payment · £3,000 return allowance
Both counterproposals deduct £65 product/fulfilment per pair and 20% commission on representative-generated sales. They revise the earlier £110 / £118 prices to meet the 30% margin floor. Acceptance is simulated, not confirmed by PT. Representative A pays sooner; Representative B earns more per pair.
Sales Agent / Tango / Simulated negotiation
Good terms. Less back and forth.
Watch the terms change, see why an offer is refused, and make the final decision.
Kareem-class example · PT-VB-001
A collaboration worth telling a story about.
600 Push pairs. A worldwide licence. A shared launch plan. Trade the commercial terms together, while keeping hero frames at full price.
First offer1 negotiation turnLimits · version 1
Your limits Royalty ≤10% · contribution ≥40% · licence ≤12 months
Sample limits. Protect frames stay full price. Clear offers expire after 30 days. Changing a limit rechecks the current deal and keeps its history. The partner’s sample royalty range starts at 8%.
Terms on the table
Not approvedRoyalty on net sales8%
Exclusive worldwide licence12 months
Campaign commitments4 placements
600 pairs / website · events600 · 0
Money left after the listed costs£50,400 42%
Validation Agent / What was checked
The opening offer meets your limits. Simulate the partner’s counteroffer to see how the terms are checked.
Rights, launch commitments and sell-off
- Rights
- Exclusive worldwide use of the collaborator’s name, likeness and agreed IP for this eyewear collaboration, for 12 months. Existing IP remains with its owner; no wider licence or automatic renewal.
- Joint launch plan
- One launch film, two social placements and one launch appearance. Both teams agree the calendar. Port Tanger provides the collection page, email and fulfilment; the collaborator provides the agreed promotion.
- Distribution and allocation
- 600 saleable Push pairs, initially allocated to Port Tanger’s website. Event allocation is negotiated. No Protect stock, unapproved resale channels or automatic repeat order.
- Approvals
- Both parties approve product design and samples, name and likeness use, final campaign assets and the launch date. Founder approval of commercial terms comes before activation; creative approvals remain separate launch checks.
- Sell-off after expiry
- 90 days for remaining approved stock only, with the same royalty and price rules. No new manufacture. Any continuing name or likeness use requires the agreed approval; remaining stock is reviewed at the end.
- Royalty and reporting
- 8% of net sales, after tax and returns. Monthly statements; returns reverse the related royalty. This is a sample commercial outline, not a signed agreement.
Show the calculation
600 pairs × £200 net sale£120,000
Product and fulfilment−£48,000
Campaign−£12,000
Royalty / 8%−£9,600
Illustrative full allocation sold at the stated net price. Contribution includes the costs shown; it is not company profit. Forecast demand and actual sales are separate.
What happened and why
One deal historyTurns count commercial offers, counteroffers and acceptance. A limit change, approval or escalation is logged separately and does not add a negotiation turn.
Optical / Existing representative relationships / Sample offers
Compare the whole deal.
A higher price per pair can come with slower payment or costly returns. Negotiate both representatives, then choose the outcome that fits.
Opening offers1 turn per representative
Contribution at least 30%Payment within 60 daysReturns up to 5%Advertised price at least £250
Both opening offers need work. Negotiate price, minimum order, payment, advertised price and returns together.
Both negotiations, in one ledger
Representative A and Representative B are fictional. Wholesale offers deduct £65 product/fulfilment per pair, 20% commission on representative-generated sales and the stated return allowance. Advertised price is the retail floor, separate from the wholesale price. No order is placed.
All terms, decisions and figures on this page are simulated. No message, contract or payment is sent.
AI recommendations
Demo logic / current example inputsLaunch Agent / From agreement to first sale
SimulationMake the plan carry through.
Use the agreed terms, set aside the right stock, and follow the money through a sample order.
Agreement required
Visited By / Rumi
Finish and approve the deal before setting stock aside.
0 of 3 launch checks complete.
One record, from terms to transaction.
The deal must be agreed and approved before this plan can launch.
Your first transaction
A sample receipt will show the sale, stock movement, partner payment and money left after the listed costs.
What still needs following up
Orders and returns change only this demo. Compare additional sales with a holdout group before increasing spending.
AI recommendations
Demo logic / current example inputsWhat if? / 24 selling weeks to March 2027
Illustrative modelScenario studio.
Compare the upside, the downside and what to do next.
Base case assumptions
Case values are editable. No probabilities are assigned to the four cases.Commission assumptions: optical representatives 20%; influencers 12–15%, on generated sales only.
Preparing the example simulations.
Median contribution——
Median pairs retained by buyers——
Runs reaching the stock goal——
Runs reaching both goals——
Stock sold through the period
Median and 90% outcome rangeAfter modeled returns. The band follows the same sampled conditions through all 24 weeks.
What changes the result most?
One input at a timeLow and high assumptions versus the central case, with other inputs held fixed. Select a driver for its impact, assumptions and next step.
Read the uncertainty correctly
Selected case / contributionThe outcome range shows the spread of modeled results. The confidence interval shows sampling precision for the simulated average; it does not validate the forecast.
AI recommendations for this scenario
CMO · Validation · MeasurementCompare the four cases
Every case uses the same stock, deal record and random draws.| Planning case | Demand / returns | Contribution median | 90% outcome range | Pairs retained | Stock left | Stock goal | Both goals |
|---|
Inspect the selected case: stock and unit economics
The central assumptions below are one coherent run. They need not equal the median of many different runs.
| Sales route | Gross orders | Returns | Net sales | Product + delivery | Commission / payment fees | Return handling | Contribution before campaign |
|---|
Assumptions, distributions and evidence needed
The starting stock and commercial record are shared with the rest of the demo.
| Uncertain input | Low | Most likely | High | Evidence needed |
|---|
Each run samples bounded triangular distributions, with the middle value most likely. A common demand shock affects all routes, with an independent smaller swing for each route. These dependencies and ranges are chosen examples, not fitted to Port Tanger data. Cost, returns, delay, campaign spend and offer response are sampled independently; real links between them would change the result.
Channel allocations: the model assigns the current optical proposal to representative-generated reseller sales, with 20% commission, and 400 Clear pairs to influencers. Influencer commission is sampled from 12% to 15%, with 12% as the central example. Those quantities are carved out of Push and Clear stock, so they are not counted twice. An unapproved proposal remains conditional. The remaining stock uses illustrative D2C economics; collaboration terms come from the current deal.
Starting pace and prices: Protect uses 155 pairs/week at £310 and £96 product/delivery cost. Ordinary Push demand uses 131/week; the optical allocation uses its own wholesale price and £65 cost, and other Push uses £240 and £80. Clear uses 45/week at £170 and £70. D2C rows include a separate 3% payment-cost assumption. Commission applies only to sales generated in its representative or influencer row. Stock allocations are physical limits, not a prediction of demand.
Current mix versus this plan: PT reports roughly 85% reseller/wholesale and 15% D2C today. This simulation is a targeted stock plan, not a reconstruction of that mix. The reported percentages do not tell us unit allocations, channel prices or what share of wholesale orders representatives generate. Confirm those inputs before using this model as a business forecast.
All values exclude tax. A returned pair is assumed resalable after the period; its sale and partner fee reverse. £12 of each unit cost represents outbound delivery already incurred, plus £12 return handling per returned pair. Product cost remains in stock for returned pairs. No same-period resale is assumed. Other campaign spending is £28,000, including the £3,500 creator setup and £10,500 website offer budget, plus the current collaboration commitment if included. Do not add the standalone CMO proposal totals again. The optical ledger uses a fixed return allowance; this forecast instead samples actual refunds and handling, so those two return treatments are not added together. Human work, financing and company overhead remain outside this contribution model; use Results to review those costs.
Clear relief applies only during the approved window and remains below the current cap. Its extra demand uses an unverified response multiplier of 1.2–3.6, centered on 2.4. Protect is never discounted. Forecast demand is bounded by physical stock; reservations do not create extra stock. The stock goal is measured on pairs retained by buyers, after returns.
Percentiles are interpolated from the simulated outcomes. Downside average is the average of the lowest 5%. The approximate 95% confidence interval for the simulation mean is mean ± 1.96 × sample standard deviation ÷ √runs. More runs reduce simulation noise, not business uncertainty. The fixed seed makes case comparisons repeatable. Confidence-interval method: NIST.
Use these results to compare assumptions and identify what to verify. They are not measured sales forecasts or statistically calibrated probabilities.
PoC results / Time and contribution
Does this give you time back—and pay for itself?
No pilot results measured. The completion target is set; the measurement rules still need agreement.
Completion target≥70%Human involvement: approve or escalate only.
Pilot completion—Awaiting eligible deals.
Median active review—Across assessed cases. Deal types shown below.
Use the primary result and the human-time measures together before deciding whether to expand.
The full picture
A signed deal counts only when it stays within the approved limits and nobody rewrites its terms during negotiation.
Exactly which deals count?
Proposed pilot rule: register every case at intake, attach the version of its approved limits, and observe it for 30 calendar days. A report includes every eligible case that has had the full 30 days, whether it closed early, failed, or is still open. Newer cases stay in a separate group until their window ends.
Numerator: an agreement reached by day 30, within mandate, with all human actions limited to approval or escalation. A human can review the terms but cannot draft, edit, or privately negotiate them. A declined deal or an escalation by itself is not a completed agreement.
Denominator: all eligible cases with a complete observation window. Rewrites, declined deals, and deals still open at day 30 remain included. Changing a mandate later cannot erase an earlier breach or rewrite.
Correct outside-mandate escalations: reported separately, as neither failures nor completions. A reviewer must confirm the policy breach against the mandate version and record the exclusion reason. This also applies if the issue emerges after intake; excluding it must be auditable, never a way to remove a difficult deal.
Freeze these rules, the reporting dates, and deal-class definitions before the PoC. Report the class mix each time; a batch of easy creator deals must not hide poor collaboration performance.
How much human time remains?
Approval and escalation time is measured per case, including correct escalations. Longer collaboration reviews stay visible.
| Deal type | Decisions-only completion | Median review | Cases timed |
|---|
Time targets by deal type are still to be agreed. ShopMy should need short reviews; a Kareem-class licence needs more attention. No time target is implied by the example.
Review time, rewriting and the real cost
Start the clock when a person actively reads or works on a case; pause for idle time. Add all sessions and all people before taking the median. Include cases with zero review minutes. Track missing timers instead of silently dropping them.
| Human action | Review median? | Total labor? |
|---|---|---|
| Read, approve or decline terms | Yes | Yes |
| Review or resolve an escalation | Yes | Yes |
| Rewrite or negotiate terms | No; shown separately | Yes |
| Prepare, check data or fix an issue | No; shown separately | Yes |
| Shared setup and training | No | Yes, separate start-up cost |
| Waiting with no active work | No | No; track elapsed time |
Loaded cost includes salary and employment overhead. This is a labor estimate, not total operating profit: software, legal, marketing and transaction costs must also enter the commercial case.
What else must improve?
The five measures in Scenario EInspect the sample deal records
No pilot case records have been connected.
| Case | Deal type | Outcome at day 30 | Review | Rewrite | Other work | Turns |
|---|
Sample records use one counted counterparty exchange per negotiation turn. Actual evidence needs case ID, mandate version, dated offers, approval events, agreement status and active-time sessions. The eight newer cases are reported separately and have 37 active minutes so far in this example.
Examples explain how the PoC will be scored. They are invented data, not Port Tanger performance. The 70% target is never replaced by an example result.
AI recommendations
Demo logic / current example inputsA guided working example
From stock to a first sale.
Change the situation. See the plan change, work through the terms and carry your decision into a sample order.
Select a role to see its responsibilities.
Your business assistant
Ask PT
Clear answers. The evidence behind them. What to do next.
PT
What would you like to understand?
Ask about a decision, a number or a risk. Your answer brings the explanation, charts and recommendations together.
Your answer is ready
Example data · Sources included with every analysis
Commercial reach
Markets & channels
Strengthen the reseller core and grow direct demand.
Demand & experience
Customers & brand
Measure extra demand and protect the brand.
Contribution & cash
Finance
Understand what is left after costs, and when cash arrives.
Stock & delivery
Operations
See what is available, committed and ready to launch.
Your AI team
AI team
Choose a role for focused advice, evidence and next steps.
Connections & traceability
Systems & data
Know where the data comes from and what is still missing.
A story you can play
Theatrical demo
Follow the opportunity, the negotiation and the human decision through to a measured sale.
THE STORY
Ready to play. Captions are always available.
This is a separate, illustrated example. Playback keeps your workspace records unchanged. Open any chapter’s workspace to explore the real demo controls.